Monday, November 19, 2007

Market Notes

SBUX - Starbucks
  • Commodity prices squeeze margins
  • Increased competition from MCD
  • Stock price dropped all year. Now selling at Aug. 2005 levels
  • Received several analyst downgrades
  • Plans for first ever TV ad campaign revealed
  • Fast Money warns of Value Trap
  • What effect does a weak dollar have?
  • Look for buying in the mid to late teens
KMX - CarMax
  • This is Buffett's only new pick
  • Is this a defensive pick? What is oil's effect?
  • Markel has been a long-term holder
  • Buffett buys at price close to $20.50
  • Study released shows that individuals can beat market by copying Buffett
HD - Home Depot
  • Eddie Lampert initiates 16.6 million share position
  • These sectors (housing, retail) are in a tail spin
  • 3% Yield $0.90 Rate
  • Halting massive $22 billion buyback ($56 billion market cap)
  • Compare that to Lampert's biggest success - SHLD $17.2 billion market cap (post-KMart)
ROK - Rockwell Automation (aerospace)
  • Cleared to buyback $2 billion worth of stock
  • Market cap - $10.2 billion
  • ROE = 31.1; ROE above 15 for the past 5 years
  • Profit margins increasing for the past 7 years
  • What are the characteristics of an aerospace cycle?

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