Thursday, October 4, 2007

Market Notes (CVA) (PVM)

Odd week.

Have you seen the weird and unsustainable rally in homebuilders and retail? All the pundits have their explanations but that's unimportant. The important thing is not to get caught up in it. We like (NVR), a homebuilder, but this shouldn't shake our conviction to get an even better price. We're waiting.

The retailers shot up big as well. Our (SHLD) shares are up 11.27% since the recommendation a week ago. This to is not sustainable in the short-term.

However, we are excited to see some life in our second pick, (BX). Blackstone is up 8.33%. This gain is also suspect but it is an important sign that BX's unexplained decline has in fact bottomed. I hate to brag but... called it!

On a different note, we've been researching ETF's and indexing. Buffett, in recent years, has been promoting these instruments for small, retail investors. Average returns minus tiny, tiny fees equals better returns than investing in average funds with larger fees. Expand this strategy over decades and you've got a fortune saved.

In an attempt to juice this strategy, check out some "smart" ETF's that focus on value picks. These are the kind of ETF's that you can buy, forget and still get better than average returns.
Check out the portfolio of PowerShares Deep Value Portfolio. This is a great way to diversify, reduce risk, fees, and improve long-term returns with very little work. The portfolio is also a way to get investing ideas.

A stock to check out, (CVA). CVA has one of the greatest gigs in business. They get paid for raw material collection and paid for their final product. CVA collects trash in New York state (and fees), then they burn it and sell the electricity that's produced back to their customers. A hand full of companies do this with trash, used oils, and scrap recyclables. CVA is interesting because they are a recent IPO, have side projects in China and water facilities, and Sam Zell has a large stake. This company seems to have all the right stuff for long term, safe growth. We aren't adding it to our portfolio (yet). But, it's an interesting company worth putting on the "maybe" list.

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